{ "id": "disposition-matchup/reconnaissance--vs--disruption", "kind": "matchup-analysis", "lang": "en", "title": "Reconnaissance vs Disruption — Surveil the Foe / Smoke and Mirrors", "subjects": [ "gdm:disposition/reconnaissance", "gdm:disposition/disruption", "gdm:primary/reconnaissance/surveil-the-foe", "gdm:primary/disruption/smoke-and-mirrors" ], "sides": { "side0": { "disposition": "reconnaissance", "card": "gdm:primary/reconnaissance/surveil-the-foe", "scoringCheckpoint": "mixed", "holdWindow": 1 }, "side1": { "disposition": "disruption", "card": "gdm:primary/disruption/smoke-and-mirrors", "scoringCheckpoint": "mixed", "holdWindow": 1 } }, "ratings": [ { "metric": "edge", "value": 12, "confidence": "medium", "basis": "theory", "rationale": "Surveil the Foe strips operation markers on ANY move that ends within range — no control, no survival, a doomed charge does it — so the denial is close to unstoppable and the 5 VP clearing line stays live. Reconnaissance also banks 9 VP a turn from its own half against 6 and runs 30 past the cap against 5. The dataslate that pushed the central terrain into the far territory narrowed this, which is why the reading is held at medium." }, { "metric": "ceiling", "side": 0, "value": 15, "confidence": "medium", "basis": "theory", "rationale": "8 VP a round of hold lines plus 4 VP surveillance and 5 VP marker denial." }, { "metric": "ceiling", "side": 1, "value": 16, "confidence": "medium", "basis": "theory", "rationale": "4 VP per decoyed objective in enemy territory, capped by a 10 VP finish for four decoys." }, { "metric": "floor", "side": 0, "value": 13, "confidence": "medium", "basis": "theory", "rationale": "The hold and parity lines pay regardless of the marker war." }, { "metric": "floor", "side": 1, "value": 11, "confidence": "medium", "basis": "theory", "rationale": "Decoys are cheap to place but the finish needs four of them to survive." }, { "metric": "tempo", "side": 0, "value": 11, "confidence": "medium", "basis": "theory", "rationale": "Surveillance and marker denial check at the end of your turn." }, { "metric": "tempo", "side": 1, "value": 12, "confidence": "medium", "basis": "theory", "rationale": "Decoy scoring checks at the end of your turn and can be rebuilt." }, { "metric": "complexity", "side": 0, "value": 13, "confidence": "medium", "basis": "theory", "rationale": "The marker war runs alongside the objective game and both have to be tracked." }, { "metric": "complexity", "side": 1, "value": 13, "confidence": "medium", "basis": "theory", "rationale": "Decoy placement has to anticipate a dedicated marker-clearing opponent." }, { "metric": "exposure", "side": 0, "value": 13, "confidence": "medium", "basis": "theory", "rationale": "Clearing enemy markers means going to where those markers are, which is rarely safe ground." }, { "metric": "activationCost", "side": 0, "value": 14, "confidence": "medium", "basis": "theory", "rationale": "Marker hunting is a full-time job for at least one fast unit." }, { "metric": "exposure", "side": 1, "value": 15, "confidence": "medium", "basis": "theory", "rationale": "Decoys are worth double in the opponent territory, and they have to survive there until the end of battle." }, { "metric": "activationCost", "side": 1, "value": 14, "confidence": "medium", "basis": "theory", "rationale": "Placing and protecting four decoys is most of an army plan." } ], "claims": [ { "type": "engine-note", "side": 0, "phase": "whole-game", "text": "Surveil the Foe pays 5 VP at the end of your turn when NONE of the opponent operation markers are on the battlefield — the same action that scores also switches off the Smoke and Mirrors engine." }, { "type": "engine-note", "side": 0, "phase": "whole-game", "text": "Surveillance itself is negated when the surveilled units sit within range of objectives that have operation markers near them, so the marker war cuts both ways." }, { "type": "engine-note", "side": 1, "phase": "whole-game", "text": "Smoke and Mirrors doubles for decoys placed in the opponent territory (2 VP plus 2 VP) and finishes on 10 VP for four or more decoyed objectives." }, { "type": "pitfall", "phase": "whole-game", "text": "Both players can over-invest in the marker war and lose the objective game that quietly pays 4 to 8 VP a round to whoever bothers." }, { "type": "cost", "side": 0, "phase": "whole-game", "text": "This card moves its checkpoint during the game, so the same grab costs a full enemy turn early and nothing late — price the grab accordingly before committing a unit to it." }, { "type": "cost", "side": 1, "phase": "whole-game", "text": "This card moves its checkpoint during the game, so the same grab costs a full enemy turn early and nothing late — price the grab accordingly before committing a unit to it." }, { "type": "terrain", "phase": "deployment", "text": "Measured across all 45 transcribed layouts: a central objective can be held from a spot only 4.6% of the enemy deployment zone can see (best board 0%), while taking an enemy home objective means standing where a median of 47.7% of their deployment zone has line of sight, rising to 91.7% on the most exposed board. Cards that pay for enemy home objectives are charging you that difference, and the board decides the price.", "refs": [ "rule:13.08", "rule:14.02" ] }, { "type": "disruption", "side": 0, "phase": "whole-game", "text": "Every marker you clear is 5 VP for you and roughly 4 VP a turn denied to them — plus their 10 VP finish, which needs 4 objectives decoyed at the end of battle. That is the best two-for-one on the board. Prioritise markers in your own territory, because those are worth double to them. And their hold line is flat, so out-holding them by one is worth 4 VP to you at no extra cost." }, { "type": "list-building", "side": 0, "phase": "list-building", "text": "Reconnaissance needs: One fast, expendable marker hunter. Not three — the objective game still pays 8 VP a round. Enough board presence to stay 1 objective ahead. Reach into their half, since that is where the double-value decoys sit. Nothing exotic: this card rewards a normal army that can travel." }, { "type": "disruption", "side": 1, "phase": "whole-game", "text": "Their 5 VP marker-denial line is all-or-nothing: it needs every one of your markers gone. So spread them — a decoy they cannot reach this turn is worth more than a decoy in the perfect spot, and a single survivor denies the whole 5 VP. Their surveillance line is also negated when the surveilled units sit near objectives with markers in range, so cluster defensively. And match their objective count to deny their second 4 VP line." }, { "type": "list-building", "side": 1, "phase": "list-building", "text": "Disruption needs: Speed and spread — decoys must be placed where 1 turn of movement cannot clear them all. Some decoys accepted at half value in your own half, because they survive to the end of battle. A holder for the flat 4 VP. Reach, not guards — their removal trigger is any move that ENDS within range of the marker, so a bodyguard changes nothing and a doomed charge still strips it. Buy the distance instead: place decoys outside their move-and-charge envelope." }, { "type": "layout", "phase": "deployment", "text": "All three boards for this pairing are transcribed and measured. Layout 1 (diagonal across the long axis) reads 5/20 for openness, Layout 2 (diagonal across the short axis) reads 6/20 for openness, Layout 3 (diagonal halves) reads 7/20 for openness. Taking a home marker off the opponent costs 38.3% deployment-zone exposure on Layout 1 and 61.5% on Layout 2 — the same play, priced very differently. Central markers stay the safest ground on all three, bottoming out at 5.8% on Layout 2." } ], "listRequirements": [ { "side": 0, "role": "One fast, expendable marker hunter", "count": 1, "trait": [ "expendable-bodies", "speed", "objective-control" ], "phase": "list-building", "why": "One fast, expendable marker hunter." }, { "side": 0, "role": "Enough board presence to stay 1 objective ahead", "count": 1, "trait": [ "objective-control" ], "phase": "list-building", "why": "Enough board presence to stay 1 objective ahead." }, { "side": 0, "role": "Reach into their half", "trait": [ "reach" ], "phase": "list-building", "why": "Reach into their half, since that is where the double-value decoys sit." }, { "side": 0, "role": "A reactive threat that makes the approach cost something", "count": 1, "trait": [ "reactive-deterrence" ], "phase": "rounds-2-3", "why": "This card checks its hold at the Command phase, so every grab has to live through a full enemy turn. Heroic Intervention, Fire Overwatch and Counter-Offensive make that survivable by taxing the commit instead of answering it after the fact — cheaper than buying enough wounds to tank it." }, { "side": 1, "role": "Speed and spread", "count": 1, "trait": [ "screening", "speed" ], "phase": "list-building", "why": "Speed and spread — decoys must be placed where 1 turn of movement cannot clear them all." }, { "side": 1, "role": "Some decoys accepted at half value in your own half", "trait": [ "durability" ], "phase": "list-building", "why": "Some decoys accepted at half value in your own half, because they survive to the end of battle." }, { "side": 1, "role": "A holder for the flat 4 VP", "count": 4, "trait": [ "objective-control" ], "phase": "list-building", "why": "A holder for the flat 4 VP." }, { "side": 1, "role": "Reach, not guards", "trait": [ "reach", "objective-control" ], "phase": "list-building", "why": "Reach, not guards — their removal trigger is any move that ENDS within range of the marker, so a bodyguard changes nothing and a doomed charge still strips it." }, { "side": 1, "role": "Buy the distance instead", "trait": [ "objective-control" ], "phase": "list-building", "why": "Buy the distance instead: place decoys outside their move-and-charge envelope." }, { "side": 1, "role": "A reactive threat that makes the approach cost something", "count": 1, "trait": [ "reactive-deterrence" ], "phase": "rounds-2-3", "why": "This card checks its hold at the Command phase, so every grab has to live through a full enemy turn. Heroic Intervention, Fire Overwatch and Counter-Offensive make that survivable by taxing the commit instead of answering it after the fact — cheaper than buying enough wounds to tank it." } ], "dependsOn": { "corpus": "2026-05-09 23:42:21", "gdmPack": "GDM" }, "status": "draft", "sources": [], "body": "## The matchup in a nutshell\n\nThe marker war. Smoke and Mirrors *is* its decoys — every line but the flat hold depends on them being on the board. Surveil the Foe pays 5 VP a turn precisely for there being none. One player's scoring action is the other player's off switch, which is why the theoretical edge sits with Reconnaissance — with a caveat we state plainly below.\n\n| | Reconnaissance | Disruption |\n|---|---|---|\n| Card | Surveil the Foe | Smoke and Mirrors |\n| Scores at | mixed | mixed |\n| Hold window | 1 enemy turn | 1 enemy turn |\n| Exposure | 13/20 | 15/20 |\n| Activation cost | 14/20 | 14/20 |\n\nA hold window of 1 cuts both ways, and most players only think about one of them. It means your grab has to survive a full enemy turn before it pays — but it also means **you get a whole turn to shoot theirs off the marker before they bank it**. Denial is not a side quest on this card; it is half the card.\n\n## Playing Reconnaissance\n\n*Your card: Surveil the Foe. Scoring checkpoint: mixed. Hold window: 1 enemy turn.*\n\n### How you score\n\n4 VP at the end of your turn for surveilling enemy units. At your Command phase, 4 VP for holding anything and 4 VP for holding more objectives than them. And 5 VP at the end of your turn if **none** of their operation markers are on the battlefield.\n\n### What it costs you\n\nMarker hunting is a full-time job for at least one fast unit, and the markers will not be somewhere convenient. The two Command-phase lines, though, are ordinary board play. Exposure 13/20, activation cost 14/20.\n\n### How you break them\n\nEvery marker you clear is 5 VP for you and roughly 4 VP a turn denied to them — plus their 10 VP finish, which needs 4 objectives decoyed at the end of battle. That is the best two-for-one on the board. Prioritise markers in your own territory, because those are worth double to them. And their hold line is flat, so out-holding them by one is worth 4 VP to you at no extra cost.\n\n### What your list needs\n\n- One fast, expendable marker hunter. Not three — the objective game still pays 8 VP a round.\n- Enough board presence to stay 1 objective ahead.\n- Reach into their half, since that is where the double-value decoys sit.\n- Nothing exotic: this card rewards a normal army that can travel.\n\n## Playing Disruption\n\n*Your card: Smoke and Mirrors. Scoring checkpoint: mixed. Hold window: 1 enemy turn.*\n\n### How you score\n\n2 VP per decoyed objective, plus 2 VP more for each decoyed objective in their territory. 4 VP at your Command phase for holding anything. And 10 VP at the end of battle if four or more objectives are decoyed.\n\n### What it costs you\n\nPlacing and protecting four decoys is most of an army plan, and the double-value ones sit in their half where they are hardest to keep. Exposure 15/20, activation cost 14/20.\n\n### How you break them\n\nTheir 5 VP marker-denial line is all-or-nothing: it needs **every** one of your markers gone. So spread them — a decoy they cannot reach this turn is worth more than a decoy in the perfect spot, and a single survivor denies the whole 5 VP. Their surveillance line is also negated when the surveilled units sit near objectives with markers in range, so cluster defensively. And match their objective count to deny their second 4 VP line.\n\n### What your list needs\n\n- Speed and spread — decoys must be placed where 1 turn of movement cannot clear them all.\n- Some decoys accepted at half value in your own half, because they survive to the end of battle.\n- A holder for the flat 4 VP.\n- Reach, not guards — their removal trigger is any move that ENDS within range of the marker, so a bodyguard changes nothing and a doomed charge still strips it. Buy the distance instead: place decoys outside their move-and-charge envelope.\n\n## The three layouts\n\nReconnaissance vs Disruption is played on one of three boards, and they are not the same game. All three are transcribed and measured below.\n\n| Board | Deployment | Openness | Centre exposure | Cost to raid a home marker | No-man's-land |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| Layout 1 | diagonal across the long axis | 5/20 | 13.8% | 38.3% | 0.4% |\n| Layout 2 | diagonal across the short axis | 6/20 | 5.8% | 61.5% | 11.5% |\n| Layout 3 | diagonal halves | 7/20 | 19% | 56.5% | 7.9% |\n\n- **Layout 1** — diagonal across the long axis, openness **5/20**. The middle is contested ground — the best holding spot on a central marker is still visible to **13.8%** of the enemy deployment zone. Raiding a home marker costs **38.3%** exposure — real, but payable with one screened unit. No-man's-land markers sit at **0.4%**. 67% of the legal holding spots can go fully out of sight — pick the spot, not the marker.\n- **Layout 2** — diagonal across the short axis, openness **6/20**. The middle is free real estate: there is a legal spot within range of a central marker that only **5.8%** of the enemy deployment zone can see. Home markers are a fortress: taking one means standing in front of **61.5%** of their deployment zone. No-man's-land markers sit at **11.5%**. 77% of the legal holding spots can go fully out of sight — pick the spot, not the marker.\n- **Layout 3** — diagonal halves, openness **7/20**. The middle is contested ground — the best holding spot on a central marker is still visible to **19%** of the enemy deployment zone. Home markers are a fortress: taking one means standing in front of **56.5%** of their deployment zone. No-man's-land markers sit at **7.9%**. 76% of the legal holding spots can go fully out of sight — pick the spot, not the marker.\n\nIf your plan needs enemy ground, **Layout 1** is where it is cheapest (38.3% exposure against 61.5% on Layout 2) — the same raid can be a bargain or a suicide depending on which board you drew.\n\nReconnaissance and Disruption must survive a full enemy turn before banking a grab, so **Layout 1** (openness 5/20) is the board where that plan is cheapest, and **Layout 3** (7/20) the one where it bleeds.\n\nNumbers are measured on the transcribed sheets: every legal spot within control range of each marker is tested, and the best one is reported — the way a real player looks for the safest place to stand, not the middle of the marker.\n\n## Decision points\n\n- Round 2 — Disruption chooses spread over value, or value over spread. Spread usually wins.\n- Rounds 3-4 — Reconnaissance decides how many units the hunt is worth. One fast unit, not three.\n- Round 5 — the 10 VP finish is checked; Reconnaissance needs a clean board on its last turn.", "url": "https://hive-perdita.vercel.app/analysis/reconnaissance--vs--disruption/" }